شمارۀ جدید فصلنامه (زمستان 1403) منتشر شد


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Showing 2 results for Cross Impact Analysis

Sara Shahanavaz, Mansoreh Azam Azadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (2-2020)
Abstract

In the past decades, social structures and institutions, including families, have been transformed by phenomena such as modernism, globalization and the expansion of communication networks.
Transformation in the pattern of marriage and the age of marriage is one of the domains affected by these changes. In Iran, delay in marriage and increased Singleness have increased in recent years. The purpose of this research is to investigate and identify the key factors affecting the issue of Singleness in Iran. To achieve this goal, a list of 104 factors affecting Singleness in Iran was prepared after reviewing and analyzing documents, studies and interviews with experts.
Then, using the Delphi method, finally 19 effective factors on Singleness in Iran was chosen. These factors were shared by 11 experts. Experts' opinions about the effectiveness and influence of factors in the Cross Impact matrix were introduced. By analyzing the outputs of the MICMAC software, the effectiveness and influence of each of the factors was determined. Factors like, impact of mass media on changing youth's attitudes, socio-economic status of family, inefficiencies in government plans to facilitate marriage, have the greatest impact on Singleness in Iran.

Maryam Irankhah, Seyed Hossein Nabavi, Ebrahim Hajiani,
Volume 15, Issue 3 (8-2024)
Abstract

The main issue of the present article is the changes in the field of social values (from the people's point of view) aimed at the desired government, which has been addressed with two main goals; 1- Finding these values in today's Iranian society; and 2- Identifying and prioritizing the driving forces affecting their change in the next decade. In terms of methodology, it is a forward-looking and applied research, based on the critical realism paradigm. From qualitative content analysis methods, ecology and S.T.E.E.P.V model, interaction analysis; library study techniques, open coding, expert panel, Likert scale questionnaire, interaction matrix and MicMac software; and purposive sampling, snowball, and available experts are used. The findings in response to the first question indicate that democracy, meritocracy, optimal performance, transparency, legality, accountability, rational legitimacy of government, all-round development and problem solving, prosperity, security, existence of civil institutions, flow free information and the possibility of participation and making demands, reducing corruption, justice and freedom in various fields, independence, and international dignity, existing social values (from the people's point of view) are aimed at the desired government. In response to the second question, the findings show that the three drivers of the emergence of the elite class after the war and the revelation of the symbols and signs of wealth and its confrontation with the values of the 1979 revolution, the absence of a suitable space for expressing the people's wishes and the lack of fulfillment their demands in the laws, structure and context of government, as well as reading and radical and fundamentalist interpretation of religion by the government are the most key variables of the system and the most influential drivers on the change of social values (from the people's point of view) aimed at the desired government. In addition, the 7 drivers such as "lack of desirable governance components (democracy, development, rule of law)", "existence of discrimination, inequality and injustice (religious, gender, class, place and ethnicity)", "concealment, lying, hypocrisy and lack of transparency in the behavior and speech of the officials", "reducing the role of expert elites and increasing the role of non-specialist supporters (government)", "existence of corruption (administrative, economic and political)", unfavorable performance and inefficiency of political and administrative structures" and "all kinds of gaps (religious, gender, generational, political, cultural, social and economic)" have the potential to join the category of the key drivers affecting the change of values, make the direction and intensity of these mentioned changes and as a result make the upcoming futures more different.


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