Social Problems of Iran

fa تحلیل تطبیقی رابطه سرمایه اجتماعی و بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی با نرخ خودکشی (مطالعه درون‌کشوری دههٔ 1390-1400) Comparative-Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship between Social Capital and Economic Instability with Suicide Rates (Intra-Country Study, 2011-2012) مسائل اجتماعی Social problems پژوهشی اصیل Original Research <div style="text-align: justify;">مسئلهٔ خودکشی به دلیل شیوع آن در تمام جوامع اعم از سنتی و پیشرفته، توجه بسیاری از محققان رشته‌های گوناگون ازجمله روانشناسی و جامعه‌شناسی را به خود جلب کرده است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، بررسی و تبیین تفاوت نرخ خودکشی در بین استان‌های کشور است. در این پژوهش ضمن مرور انتقادی منابع و تئوری‌های حوزهٔ نظم اجتماعی، با رویکرد جامعه‌شناختی کلان به تبیین مسئلهٔ خودکشی پرداخته شده است. روش پژوهش، تطبیقی-کمّی با استفاده از تحلیل ثانویهٔ داده‌های موجود، در بازه زمانی 1400-1390 با واحد تحلیل استان اجرا شده است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که ترکیب خطی متغیرها قریب به دوسوم واریانس نرخ خودکشی را در بین استان‌های کشور تبیین کردند و تغییرات نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، رضایت از زندگی و ارزیابی از آینده به ترتیب حائز بیشترین تأثیر بر نرخ خودکشی هستند. در ضمن، دو متغیر تغییرات نرخ تورم و نرخ بیکاری تأثیر مثبت و دو متغیر رضایت از زندگی و ارزیابی از آینده تأثیر منفی بر خودکشی داشته‌اند. بر اساس یافته‌ها، می‌توان گفت در استان‌هایی که با ضعف و کاهش حمایت‌ها و پیوند اجتماعی در سایهٔ فروکاهی سرمایه اجتماعی، با بروز فشارهای اقتصادی، افرادی که احساس حمایت اجتماعی ضعیفی دارند، در برابر تغییرات سریع، ناهماهنگ و شدید اقتصادی آسیب‌پذیرتر بوده و احتمال اقدام به خودکشی افزایش می‌یابد.</div> Suicide, due to its prevalence across societies both traditional and modern has attracted considerable attention from researchers across multiple disciplines, including psychology and sociology. The primary aim of the present study is to examine and elucidate the interprovincial differences in suicide rates within Iran. This research adopts a macro-sociological perspective, critically reviewing existing literature and social order theories to analyze the phenomenon of suicide. Employing a comparative-quantitative approach, the study utilizes secondary data spanning 2011–2021, with provinces serving as the unit of analysis. Empirical findings indicate that the linear combination of the examined variables accounts for approximately 0.63 of the variance in provincial suicide rates. Among the predictors, changes in inflation rates (β = 0.327) and unemployment rates (β = 0.220) exerted the strongest positive and direct effects on suicide rates, whereas life satisfaction (β = -0.146) and future outlook (β = -0.028) exhibited negative associations. These results suggest that provinces with higher inflation and unemployment experienced elevated suicide rates, while higher levels of life satisfaction and positive future expectations were associated with lower rates of suicide. Accordingly, the findings imply that individuals with weak social support and diminished social cohesion are particularly vulnerable to rapid, disjointed, and severe economic changes, which may increase the likelihood of suicide. Extended Abstract Introduction Suicide as a social phenomenon, although rooted in individual action, is sociologically, especially in the Durkheimian tradition, a function of social realities (integration and regularity). In Iran, statistics from the Forensic Medicine Organization show that the number of successful suicides increased from 2,598 in 2011 to 5,085 in 2013, and the suicide rate increased from 3.5 to 6 per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the distribution of suicide frequency among provinces is not uniform: Ilam province with an average rate of 0.116 and Sistan and Baluchestan province with a rate of 0.018 are at the top and bottom of this spectrum. This intra-country heterogeneity shapes the main research question: What factors explain the difference in suicide rates among Iranian provinces? The present study answers this question with a macro-sociological approach, simultaneously emphasizing the two constructs of social disorganization (as weak social capital, social ties, and institutional support) and economic instability (as inflation, unemployment, and declining GDP). The theoretical framework of the study is based on five axes: (1) Durkheim's suicide theory (1897), emphasizing two social trends of integration and regularity that cause selfish suicide (caused by weak cohesion) and anomic suicide (caused by disorder and economic crisis), respectively. Durkheim explicitly showed that financial crises and worsening economic conditions, such as the Vienna crisis of 1873, are accompanied by a sudden increase in suicide. (2) The theory of social disorganization (Wilson and Herrnstein), which emphasizes the weakening of institutions such as the family, school, and local communities and the reduction of the effectiveness of informal controls. (3) Stress theory (Agnew), which considers stressful events and lack of social support as the cause of negative emotions and ultimately deviant behaviors. (4) Social bond theory (Hirsch) which emphasizes the role of attachment, commitment, involvement and belief in preventing deviance. (5) The concept of economic disorganization, which refers to crisis, recession, decline in GDP, chronic inflation and structural unemployment. The combination of these theories provides an explanatory model according to which the weakness of social capital (social disorganization) on the one hand and economic instability on the other hand interactively create the basis for an increase in suicide. The main hypothesis of the research: “The suicide rate is a function of social disorganization and economic instability”. Methodology The research is a comparative-quantitative within-country study with a cross-sectional design (10 years). The unit of analysis is the 31 provinces of Iran in the period 2011-2014 (except for some indicators that continued until 2013). The data collection method is secondary analysis of existing data from three main sources: Suicide: Statistics from the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization (number of successful suicides and rate per 100,000 people). Social capital indicators (social disorganization): Data from the social capital survey including eight dimensions: perception of the institutional success of the system, perception of the desirability of society, assessment of the future, perception of the existence of justice and equality, public trust, lawlessness, social participation, and life satisfaction. Economic indicators (economic instability): Data from the Central Bank and the Statistical Center of Iran including GDP per capita, Gini coefficient, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and economic participation rate. Findings The suicide trend in the country has been on the rise during the years 2011-2023. The suicide rate has increased from 4.7 in 2011 to 8.8 in 2023 (an increase of about 87 percent). Suicide attempts have also increased from 112 to 195 per 100,000 people. The provinces of Ilam (0.116), Kermanshah (0.110), Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad and Lorestan (0.088) have the highest average suicide rates, and the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, South Khorasan, Yazd and Mazandaran have the lowest rates. The average social capital indicators in the country are low: the highest life satisfaction is in Bushehr and the lowest in Kurdistan.The multiple regression model (simultaneous entry of 14 independent variables) showed: the multiple correlation coefficient is R=0.796 and the coefficient of determination is R²=0.633. In other words, the linear combination of variables explains about 63% of the variance in suicide rates across provinces (the adjusted coefficient of determination is 0.312, which indicates that about 31% of the variance is explained by taking into account the number of variables. Among the 14 variables, only four variables had a significant effect: Changes in inflation rate and unemployment rate are positive and direct; with increasing inflation and unemployment, the suicide rate increases, and the variables of life satisfaction and assessment of the future have a significant negative and inverse relationship with the suicide rate, meaning that with increasing life satisfaction and positive assessment of the future, the suicide rate decreases. Conclusion The research findings clearly support Durkheim's theoretical framework and post-Durkheimian theories. Increased inflation and unemployment (economic instability) as indicators of economic disorder and anomie are associated with increased suicide. This finding is consistent with the research of Hassel et al. (2014) in Greece, Amiri (2021) and Frasquiello et al. (2016). On the other hand, decreased life satisfaction and negative evaluation of the future (which are reflections of weak social capital and social disorganization) are associated with increased suicide. It is noteworthy that many dimensions of social capital (public trust, social participation, lawlessness, etc.) did not show a significant effect in the regression analysis, which is in line with the findings of Salehabadi (1400) and somewhat different from the findings of Bahador (1400). This may be due to differences in indexing, time period or level of analysis.Suicide in Iran, especially in the western and southwestern provinces, is a multi-causal social problem that is formed at the intersection of social disorganization (weak supports, low life satisfaction, pessimism about the future) and economic instability (inflation and chronic unemployment). Therefore, any effective intervention in reducing suicide requires an integrated and context-based approach. Therefore, it is suggested that designing social policies based on strengthening social capital (local participatory programs, support groups) along with economic stabilization policies (inflation control and unemployment reduction) be put on the agenda as preventive strategies for suicide.   &emsp;   تحلیل تطبیقی-کمّی, خودکشی, سرمایهٔ اجتماعی, شاخص‌های اقتصادی, ایران Comparative-quantitative analysis, Suicide, Social capital, Economic indicators, Iran 203 246 http://jspi.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-253-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Afshar Kabiri افشار کبیری a.kabiri@urmia.ac.ir 2971349209 0009-0002-9442-130X Yes Urmia University استادیار جامعه‌شناسی، دانشکدۀ ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران Mortaza Mahmoodzadeh مرتضی محمودزاده motazamori198@gmail.com 2790270112 0009-0002-4816-7881 No استادیار جامعه‌شناسی، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، ارومیه، ایران