Social Problems of Iran

fa آینده‌پژوهی هویت ملی نسل‌های Z و آلفا در اردبیل: تحلیل سناریوهای تداوم، تعامل و تحول Futures Study of National Identity in Generations Z and Alpha in Ardabil: An Analysis of Continuity, Interaction, and Transformation Scenarios مسائل اجتماعی Social problems پژوهشی اصیل Original Research <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:IRANsharp;">در دهه‌های اخیر، تحولات هویت ملی در میان نسل‌های جوان، به‌ویژه نسل‌های Z و آلفا، به موضوعی مهم در پژوهش‌های اجتماعی تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه با روش کیفی و در چارچوب آینده‌پژوهی، تحولات هویت ملی را در میان دانش‌آموزان شهر اردبیل بررسی می‌کند. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۳۰ دانش‌آموز گردآوری و با استفاده از تحلیل مضمون تحلیل شدند. با به‌کارگیری روش سناریونویسی، سه سناریوی محتمل برای آیندۀ هویت ملی ترسیم شد: ۱) سناریوی تداوم: تأکید بر نمادهای ملی و نقش کم‌رنگ تحولات جهانی؛ ۲) سناریوی تعامل: تلفیق خلاقانه عناصر هویت ملی با مؤلفه‌های جهانی؛ ۳) سناریوی تحول: بازتعریف هویت در چارچوب‌های جهانی و فاصله‌گیری از الگوهای سنتی. یافته‌ها نشان داد که در سناریوی نخست، نهادهای سنتی در حفظ هویت ملی نقش پررنگی دارند؛ در سناریوی دوم، تعامل رسانه‌های جدید و ارزش‌های فرهنگی، هویت ملی را پویاتر می‌سازد؛ و در سناریوی سوم، جهانی‌شدن و تغییر سبک زندگی به بازتعریف هویت ملی می‌انجامد. همچنین، بیشتر شرکت‌کنندگان در موقعیتی تعاملی قرار دارند؛ امری که نشان می‌دهد نسل جوان به‌گونه‌ای پویا و فعال در حال ساخت هویت‌های ترکیبی و چندلایه است. بر مبنای یافته‌ها، رسانه و آموزش در سناریوی تعامل، به‌عنوان سناریوی برتر، نقشی کلیدی در تقویت آینده هویت ملی دارند. ازاین‌رو، در غیاب برنامه‌ریزی آموزشی ـ فرهنگی هوشمند، احتمال تقویت گرایش‌های تحولی همراه با گسست از هویت ملی وجود دارد؛ امری که به‌ویژه در میان دانش‌آموزان مناطق مرکزی شهر و مدارس غیرانتفاعی، به دلیل دسترسی بیشتر به منابع جهانی، محسوس‌تر است. در این زمینه، نظام آموزشی می‌تواند با بازنگری در برنامه‌های درسی و روش‌های آموزشی، نقش مهمی در هدایت این تحولات ایفا کند.</span></div> <div style="text-align: justify;">In recent decades, the evolution of national identity among younger generations, particularly Generation Z and Alpha, has become a significant subject in social research. This study, employing a qualitative methodology within a futures studies framework, investigates the transformations of national identity among students in the city of Ardabil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 30 students and analyzed using thematic analysis. By applying the scenario writing method, three probable scenarios for the future of national identity were delineated: 1) Continuity Scenario: Emphasis on national symbols and a diminished role of global developments. 2) Interaction Scenario: Creative integration of national identity elements with global components. 3) Transformation Scenario: Redefinition of identity within global frameworks and a distancing from traditional patterns. The findings indicate that in the first scenario, the role of traditional institutions in preserving national identity is prominent; in the second scenario, the interaction between new media and cultural values renders national identity more dynamic; and in the third scenario, globalization and changing lifestyles lead to a redefinition of national identity. The study also reveals that most participants occupy an interactive position. For instance, one student's statement, "I listen to both Iranian pop music and follow foreign bands, and I see no contradiction between the two," demonstrates how the younger generation is actively and dynamically constructing hybrid and multi-layered identities. Based on the findings, it can be argued that since the two factors of media and education play a key role in strengthening national identity within the interaction scenario -identified as the most favorable scenario- the absence of a smart educational–cultural planning approach may increase the likelihood of transformative tendencies that entail a complete rupture from national identity. This trend was particularly evident among students in central urban areas and private schools, who have greater access to global resources. In this regard, the educational system can play a crucial role in guiding these transformations through revising curricula and pedagogical approaches.</div> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Extended Abstract </strong><br> In recent decades, the evolution of national identity among younger cohorts—particularly Generation Z (born mid 1990s to early 2010s) and Generation Alpha (born approximately 2010 2020s)—has become a central concern in social research. These generations grow up in a highly digital, globally connected environment, which significantly reshapes their sense of belonging to the nation state. While traditional institutions (family, school, state) once played a dominant role in transmitting national identity, their influence is now contested by global media, social networks, and transnational cultural flows. This study addresses the following research question: What are the probable future trajectories of national identity among Generation Z and Generation Alpha in Iran, specifically among students in the city of Ardabil—a region with a rich cultural and historical heritage? <br> The research adopts a multi level, synthetic theoretical framework combining: (1) Castells’ network society theory, which highlights the emergence of multi layered, fluid identities in the digital age; (2) Hall’s conception of identity as a process of “becoming” rather than a fixed essence, constantly shaped by discourse and power; (3) Beck’s notion of institutionalised individualism, where individuals construct their identities through personal choices; (4) Touraine’s theory of subjectivity, emphasising active, conscious agency in identity formation; and (5) hybrid identity theory (Nadsen),which explains how individuals integrate seemingly contradictory identity components (traditional/modern, local/global, national/transnational) into personalised configurations. <br> The study employs a qualitative, interpretivist paradigm within a futures studies framework. Data were collected through semi structured interviews with 30 high school students (grades 10–12) in Ardabil. Sampling was purposive, ensuring diversity in gender (equal representation), school type (public, private, and selective public schools), and residential area (central vs. peripheral neighbourhoods). Theoretical saturation was achieved after 30 interviews. Thematic analysis, following Braun and Clarke’s six phase method, was used to identify core patterns. Subsequently, the researchers applied cross impact analysis and scenario writing to construct three plausible future scenarios for national identity. Validation was performed through member checking and expert review. Key Findings – Three Scenarios: The analysis revealed three distinct but interrelated scenarios regarding the future of national identity among these students: 1. Continuity Scenario (40% of responses): Students in this group maintain strong attachment to traditional national symbols (e.g., the national flag, Nowruz celebrations) and show high respect for family and school as identity shaping institutions. <br> “The Iranian flag is sacred to me; I always have it in my room” (male, 17). However, even within this group, limited exposure to global media was evident, indicating the gradual penetration of global cultural elements.<br> 2. Interaction Scenario (50% of responses – the most prevalent): This scenario represents the most dynamic and creative identity pattern. Students actively and intentionally blend national and global cultural elements, producing hybrid, multi layered identities without perceiving contradictions. For example: “I listen to both Iranian pop music and follow foreign bands; I see no contradiction between the two.” They use mixed language (Azeri, Persian, English), combine local imagery with global music in social media posts, and consume both Iranian and international films. This group acts as a cultural bridge between traditionalists and globalists. 3. Transformation Scenario (10% of responses – small but growing): Students in this scenario have significantly distanced themselves from national symbols and identify more as “global citizens.” They predominantly use international platforms and feel a stronger sense of belonging to a global community than to Iran. A representative quote: “I spend most of my time on international platforms and feel I belong to the global community.” This tendency was more pronounced among students in private schools and central urban areas, who have greater access to global resources. Cross Impact Analysis and Probabilities: Using a cross impact matrix, the researchers calculated the relative likelihood of each scenario based on two key driving factors: (1) the strength of traditional institutions (family, school) and (2) the depth of engagement with global culture. The interactive scenario received the highest weighted score, particularly due to the strong influence of media and education. The analysis indicates that, under current trends, the interaction scenario is the most probable future for national identity among young students in Ardabil. Role of Media and Education: The findings demonstrate that media consumption patterns and educational policies are the two most powerful leverage points shaping future national identity. In the interaction scenario (the preferred and most likely scenario), media and education play a key role in strengthening national identity by enabling creative synthesis rather than passive acceptance of global culture. Conversely, the absence of intelligent educational cultural planning may reinforce the transformation scenario, leading to a complete rupture from national identity – a risk particularly visible among students with higher access to global digital resources. <br> The results align with Castells’ argument that digital spaces do not simply erase national identities but enable new, multi layered forms of belonging. They also support Hall’s view of identity as an ongoing, contested process and Touraine’s emphasis on active subjecthood. The interaction scenario exemplifies what hybrid identity theory describes: young individuals today are capable of holding seemingly contradictory identity elements together in creative, personally meaningful ways. This does not imply a crisis of identity but rather a transition from static, inherited national identity to a more reflexive, project based identity. Policy Implications and Recommendations: The study provides scenario specific strategies for cultural and educational policy: · For the Continuity Scenario: Strengthen family school partnerships, revise formal national identity education using participatory methods (storytelling, experiential learning), produce local digital content (e.g., about Ardabil’s culture), and foster intergenerational dialogue. · For the Interaction Scenario (the most desirable and probable): Recognise diversity as cultural capital, design curricula that combine local values with global skills (critical thinking, digital literacy, global citizenship), support bi cultural media production (e.g., Iranian stories told through global genres like animation or podcasts), and actively include youth representatives in cultural policy councils.<br> For the Transformation Scenario: Redefine national identity as a blend of historical roots and global values (justice, diversity, creativity), teach media literacy and critical thinking tailored to Generation Z and Alpha, use immersive technologies (augmented reality, AI) to narrate Iranian history and culture, and train teachers and counsellors to understand digital-native language and identity logics. <br>  This study concludes that national identity among Generation Z and Generation Alpha in Ardabil is not in decline but is undergoing a dynamic and creative redefinition. The majority of young students are not passive victims of globalisation; rather, they are active agents who skilfully blend national and global elements into hybrid, resilient identities. The interaction scenario – blending tradition with modernity, local with global – represents the most probable and most promising future. However, without intelligent, forward looking cultural and educational policies that recognise the centrality of media and education, there is a genuine risk that the transformation scenario (complete disconnection from national identity) could become more widespread. The findings call for a shift from rigid, preservative identity policies towards flexible, participatory, and future oriented strategies that empower young people to construct their national belonging in dialogue with the world.<br>  </p> هویت ملی, نسلZ, نسل الفا, آینده پژوهی,سناریو نویسی, هویت نوجوانان, هویت ترکیبی, National Identity, Generation Z, Generation Alpha, Futures Studies, Hybrid Identities, Generational Change, Cultural Policy, 167 202 http://jspi.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-867-4&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Salahedin Ghaderi صلاح‌الدین قادری salahedin.gh@khu.ac.ir 0059181842 10031947532846008177 Yes Associate Professor of Sociology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran دانشیار جامعه‌شناسی، دانشکدۀ ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران Mohammad Shamshiri Niri محمد شمشیری Mohammad.shamshiri@khu.ac.ir 6039647043 10031947532846008178 No PhD Student in Cultural Policy, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran دانشجوی دکتری رشتۀ سیاست‌گذاری فرهنگی، گروه جامعه‌شناسی، دانشکدۀ ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران